How Marketers Stand to Lose N14bn Monthly in Nigeria’s Shifting Fuel Market
The Nigerian fuel industry is undergoing a seismic shift, and the aftershocks are sending shockwaves through the pockets of petroleum marketers. In a bold move that has left importers reeling, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery has slashed its ex-depot petrol price for the third time in six weeks, dropping it to N835 per litre.
For fuel importers, this isn’t just a minor adjustment—it’s a financial tsunami. Marketers now face a staggering N14 billion monthly loss, as the price gap between imported petrol and locally refined fuel widens. The implications? A dramatic reshuffling of Nigeria’s fuel supply chain, where only the strongest—or the most adaptable—will survive.
But how did we get here? And what does this mean for the everyday Nigerian filling up their tank? Let’s dive deep into the numbers, the players, and the high-stakes battle unfolding in Nigeria’s oil sector.
The Price War: Dangote’s Dominance vs. Importers’ Desperation
The Dangote Refinery isn’t just flexing its muscles—it’s rewriting the rules of the game. With its latest price cut, the refinery has effectively undercut importers by N33.33 per litre, forcing them into a brutal dilemma: sell at a loss or risk being pushed out of the market entirely.
Here’s the breakdown:
- Imported petrol landing cost: N868.33/litre (as reported by the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria).
- Dangote’s ex-depot price: N835/litre—a difference that spells disaster for importers.
With Nigeria’s daily petrol consumption hovering around 50 million litres, importers are staring down a N466.62 million daily loss. Multiply that by 30 days, and you’ve got a N13.998 billion monthly hemorrhage.
Why This Is a Tipping Point
This isn’t just about pricing—it’s about market control. For years, Nigeria relied heavily on imported fuel, leaving consumers at the mercy of fluctuating global prices and forex instability. But with Dangote’s refinery now operational, the balance of power is shifting.
Chinedu Ukadike, National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), put it bluntly:
“Marketers with old stock have to sell at a loss. It’s affecting us, but the reality is that the market is changing.”
And changing fast.
The Domino Effect: Who Wins, Who Loses?
1. Fuel Importers: The Walking Dead of Nigeria’s Oil Market?
Importers are caught between a rock and a hard place. With Dangote’s refinery offering cheaper petrol, consumers are naturally flocking to stations supplied by local refiners.
Billy Gillis-Harry, President of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN), didn’t mince words:
“One company should not hold everyone to ransom. If this continues, importers will be forced out of business.”
The numbers don’t lie:
- Petrol imports have plummeted from 44.6 million litres/day (August 2024) to just 14.7 million litres/day (April 2025).
- The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) has also reduced its pump price to N935/litre, but even that is still N100 higher than Dangote’s partner stations.
2. Consumers: Short-Term Relief, Long-Term Uncertainty
For Nigerians at the pump, this is good news—for now. Prices are dropping, and if the trend continues, we could see further reductions.
But there’s a catch:
- What happens if Dangote gains a monopoly?
- Will prices stabilize, or will market manipulation become a risk?
3. Local Refineries: The New Kings of the Game
The Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria (CORAN) sees this as an inevitable shift. Eche Idoko, CORAN’s Publicity Secretary, warned:
“Importers need to adapt or die. Refining in Nigeria has come to stay.”
With the Port Harcourt Refinery back online and modular refineries increasing output, the days of fuel importation may be numbered.
The Bigger Picture: Is This the End of Fuel Importation in Nigeria?
The writing is on the wall: Nigeria is moving toward self-sufficiency in fuel production. But this transition won’t be painless.
Key Takeaways:
✅ Dangote’s refinery is reshaping the market, forcing importers to either adapt or exit.
✅ Consumers benefit in the short term, but long-term market health depends on competition.
✅ Government regulators must step in to ensure fair pricing and prevent monopolistic practices.
What’s Next?
- Will more refineries join the fray, driving prices even lower?
- How will forex fluctuations impact local refining costs?
- Can importers pivot to alternative revenue streams before it’s too late?
One thing is certain: Nigeria’s fuel industry will never be the same again.
A New Era for Nigeria’s Oil Sector
The Dangote Refinery’s price slash isn’t just a business move—it’s a market revolution. For decades, Nigeria hemorrhaged billions on fuel imports while its refineries lay dormant. Now, the tables are turning.
But with great power comes great responsibility. If Dangote’s dominance goes unchecked, we risk trading one problem for another. The government must ensure a balanced, competitive market—one where local refining thrives without crushing smaller players.
